Just before the lately negotiated four-day “humanitarian pause” in Gaza, Israel’s top security official put a little-noticed time frame on the IDF’s planned military operations there, including a vaguely promising shutdown date.
On November 23, as Qatari and other diplomats were nailing down the terms of the temporary respite, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that, once the brief “pause” deal had expired, Israeli forces would resume their offensive against Hamas bases in Gaza “with intensity” for at least two more months.
So much public attention was focused on the pending agreement, with its implications for proposed hostage/prisoner exchanges, that foreign media gave only glancing coverage to Gallant’s stunning qualifier. Taken on its face, it seems to signal a willingness on Israel’s part to recognize — for the first time — a “date possible” for the beginning of the end to its Iron Swords Operation aimed at eviscerating Hamas for its cross-border assaults of October 7.
Brimming with martial fervor, Gallant ordered all troops to “organize” for the lull, to “investigate, resupply arms, and get ready to continue” battle afterwards “because we need to complete the victory and create the impetus for the next groups of hostages, who will only come back as a result of pressure.”
He then dropped in the zinger: “At least another two months of fighting is expected.”
This seemingly gratuitous “dead-lining” may reflect growing concern in Jerusalem about the potential catastrophic consequences of keeping the nation’s economy and much of its work force on a war footing for an open-ended period. Independent researchers, including Moody’s, are sounding the alarms, big time.
It is also possible, as I have written elsewhere, that evolution of Israel’s “secret war” assets, including creation of a kill squad dedicated to snuffing Hamas’ leadership on the QT anywhere, anytime, has strengthened confidence within the government that it can score its strategic goals short of reducing Gaza to rubble. Indeed, Defense Minister Gallant has hinted that the war might be shortened if merely the top member of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, were eliminated.
In addition, the military lull itself and any possible extensions promise invaluable intelligence benefits for Israel that could make strategic adjustments seem risk-worthy.
Every time the guns go silent, it is like turning off the extraneous noise in a darkened cavern where you have planted agents and listening devices to find and fix the bad guys. A muting of the soaring cacophonies of battle makes the “strategic whispers” much easier to detect and decode. Moreover, every time Israeli hostages are shuffled around Hamas’ tunnel complexes preparatory to release, every time humanitarian aid is snagged by Hamas pilferers, the literal vibrations enable Israeli sensors, underground imaging technology and other sensitive spy gear to map the actors and the activity. Hence Gallant’s admonition to IDF troops to be ready to “investigate” during any lull in the fighting.
Much could alter Israel’s strategic plans of course, including additional military “pauses” and proposed hostage releases and the leverage Hamas might attempt to apply through them. But if Israel has indeed embraced a date-specific operational timetable, you can bet it is because its intelligence services are reasonably certain of being able to deliver Sinwar’s head on a platter, discreetly, in their own good time.