Instant postmortems are inherently fools’ errands, especially within the context of volatile crises like the sudden direct Iran-Israel shootout.
Even as this is written, the White House is urging Israel against any immediate tit-for-tat for the unprecedented Iranian aerial assault on Israel yesterday and is warning that the US will not be party to any offensive riposte. But somewhat paradoxically, Biden is also insisting that the U.S. commitment to Israel’s defense remains “iron clad.”
Meanwhile, Israeli right-wingers like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have begun screaming for an immediate drive on Rafah. War cabinet moderate Benny Gantz has hinted at a retaliatory strike at a time of Israel’s own choosing. The Jerusalem Post, apparently prodded by official leaks, has gamed out a scenario in which the Israeli air force delivers a long-threatened killing blow to Iran’s fledgling nuclear program, using bunker busters only available from the US. And the IDF has already launched attacks against Hezbollah munitions facilities across the border in Lebanon.
At the same time Bibi’s generals are re-mobilizing two brigades recently withdrawn from Gaza, apparently to reinforce the Netzarim corridor across its central region and thus prevent the northward migration of large numbers of displaced refugees holed up in camps to the south.
In short, pots are boiling on several burners and the situation is variable in the extreme.
Still, if I were a betting man, here are some odds I would urge on any similarly inclined gamester, at least with respect to the war in Gaza.
The way I see things just now, Iran’s unprecedented though largely ineffectual aerial attack on Israel has the potential for altering the Gaza equation dramatically — for the better, in terms of humanitarian concerns and overall U.S. interests.
American intelligence support and direct armed assistance in fending off 300 Iranian missiles and other projectiles aimed at Israel put its government and citizenry in Biden’s debt in ways that were unimaginable just two days before.
By underscoring America’s obvious indispensability as strategic partner, Biden has enhanced his ability to leverage concessions from Netanyahu on a negotiated truce deal, the planned Rafah offensive, humanitarian aid issues, and even a two-state solution – and to do so without the risk of being seen as shortchanging Israel’s security.
Indeed, having proven extravagantly generous in Israel’s defense, Biden is arguably better positioned than ever before – at home and in Israel – to threaten cutbacks in offensive arms transfers under a national security directive issued last February if the IDF isn’t more attentive to civilian safety and refugee welfare in the Strip.
For the same reason, he also seems better armed politically to advocate for normalized relations between Israel and the Saudis and for a strategic partnership between them — even at the price the Saudis demand, which is a stated commitment from Israel to move towards a two-state solution.
The Saudis themselves have an added incentive to shore up ties to Isarel and nail down parallel arms and security arrangements with the U.S. since the regional threat posed by Teheran’s Shiite regime is now laid bare for even the most devoted equivocators to see.
Further, in subtle ways, Bibi’s right-wing coalition has become more fragile because of the Iranian air onslaught.
Here’s why.
Given the now patent existential threat facing Israel, moderates like Gantz can lobby forcefully to end a policy that happens to be vital to Bibi’s political survival – the government’s decades-old practice of granting draft exemptions to ultra-orthodox Israeli Jews. Since members of this constituency are key to Bibi’s current governing coalition, their disaffection would be the kiss of death for him.
On April 1 under an Israeli Supreme Court ruling, the government was obliged to shut down funding for ultra-orthodox religious schools, thus making the attendees imminently draftable.
Netanyahu rushed to negotiate workarounds, temporary legislative or administrative accommodations that would delay the inevitable. But his two war-cabinet partners, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, threatened to resign if the sweeping exemption was preserved. On the other side of the debate, Bibi’s arch-conservative supporters, including the ultra-orthodox community, threatened to abandon him if the exemptions disappeared.
Under current circumstances, with a wider war beckoning, it is hard to see how the exemption lobby can be accommodated. If it isn’t, Bibi’s political base will very likely begin to fragment, depriving him of the slim majority that keeps him afloat.
Doubtless the ever-resourceful Prime Minister will try to replay the card that he has used as his ace till now – the argument that a national emergency is no time to call for elections or alter the government. But part of his rallying cry, particularly with his far right, has been a subtle sliming of Joe Biden, an intimation of frustration with his attempts to moderate Israeli objectives in Gaza.
Given the Biden administration’s vital role in warding off Iranian missiles and drones in the past forty-eight hours, such scapegoating can only ring hollow.
And since two other newly outspoken critics of Operation Iron Swords, France and Britain, likewise assisted in backstopping Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow missile defenses and thus blunting the Iranian attack, Netanyahu is running out of people and parties to blame for his own failures in Gaza.
While the IDF has significantly degraded Hamas for the most righteous reasons, the humanitarian fallout has obviously taken its toll on Israel’s professions of good intent, and Bibi’s failure to plan adequately for administering and policing secured territory has raised the prospect of Hamas rejuvenating itself over and over again, leading to a never-ending war — unless Joe Biden uses the credit and credibility he has just earned to force some considered caution on Israel’s embattled PM and rally the international community into isolating Iran’s fanatics.